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Pair trading in one of the most popular trading strategies among stock traders when they take simultaneous positions in two similar stocks. Both these stocks are almost similar but for the time being are facing dislocation. Stock traders benefit from this temperary dislocation in these two almost similar stocks by going long in one and short in the other in equal dollar amounts.

What you do is try to find two stocks in the same industry and the same sector with a strong historical correlation between them. Yet for the time being, these two stocks are experiencing dislocation with one stock higher in price as compared to the other stock. Overtime, both the stocks are going to converge to the same price level.

You benefit from this convergence by going short on the higher priced stock and going long on the lower priced stocks. So when both the stocks converge, you make profit. If both don’t converge, you don’t lose much. So in pair trading, you try to profit from the convergence of the two stock prices to the historical levels.

Now this same strategy can be used in currency trading. The good thing in currency trading is that you don’t have to buy two separate currencies. Pair trading is sort of in build in it as you can only trade currency pairs meaning you can go short on one and long on another or the other way around.

Now when you pair trade stocks, you are striping out the market influence from your postion by going short on one and long on the other. These two positions cancel each other as the market moves since both similar stocks are supposed to move in the same direction.

Currencies can also be viewed as stocks with countries replacing companies. Just like companies are affected by the broader economic fundamentals in the same way countries get affected by sovereign debt, trade protectionism, trade balance, budge deficit and so on. These things affect the respective currencies. Now two countries in the same region with strong trade and economic relationship can have their currencies behave in almost similar fashion. This is the basis of pair trading in forex.

Japanese Yen (JPY) was a popular carry trading currency. Traders were happy selling JPY and buying another high yielding currency like AUD. But in 2009, carry traders lost their risk appetite and suddenly started unwinding their yen positions. This massive buying back of JPY made JPY appreciate. So this appreciation of JPY is short term.

Korean economy is closely tied to the Japanese economy with its Won doing well but you can profit from this short term divergence in JPY and Won by trading the pair JPYKRW. Similarly you can pair trade Euro and Pound!

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Interest rates play a pivot role in any economy. High interest rates can increse the cost of doing business. It is the job of the central banks to increase or decrease the interest rate in the economy. In US, FOMC ( Federal Open Market Committee) of the FED is responsible for deciding upon an interest rate increase or decrease. FOMC meetings are keenly watched by the market analyst. This is one of the most market mover announcement and can affect many currency pairs in the world. Interest rate changes can have both short term as well as long term implications for the currency markets and can drive them in either direction up or down!

Currency markets and interest rates are intimately interconnected. As a currency trader, the most important thing for you is to know the interest rate differential of the currency pair that you are trading. You calculate this interest rate differential by taking the difference between the interest rate on the first currency in the pair also known as the base currency and subtracting the interest rate of the second currency in the pair also known as the counter currency from the first interest rate. This interest rate differential is calculated at 5:00 PM EST every day by the brokers. If it is positive, you are paid this interest by your broker. Yeah, this is true. If your broker is not doing it than you are being cheated. On the other hand, if this interest rate differential comes out to be negative, this amount will be deducted from your account. Knowing this thing is very important for any currency trader. Surprisingly many traders are ignorant of this fact.

Majority of investors are primarily yield seekers. Large banks, hedge funds, corporations, pension funds and institutional investors are always shifting their funds from low yielding assets to high yielding assets.

Future interest rates are always of prime interest to investors and traders. This makes these interest rate differentials a leading indicator of future currency prices. Let’s make it clear with an example, suppose the Swiss 10 year government bond yield is 5% whereas the current US 10 year government bond yield is 2%. Then the yield spread would be 3% (300 basis points) in favor of Switzerland. Now, if the Swiss government decided to further raise the interest rate by 50 basis points, the new bond yield spread would also appreciate to 350 basis points. This is an indication that Swiss Franc (CHF) is going to appreciate relative to USD in future.

So how do you calculate the interest rate differentials for currency pairs? The best method is to use yields on the 10 year government bonds. THe data is easily available on Bloomberg. For example, in case of GBPUSD pair subtract the yield on 10 year US Treasury Note from the British 10 year gilt. However, in case of EURUSD use German 10 year bond instead of gilt. Keeping track of the trend in interest rate differentials overtime can give you a leading indication of appreciation or depreciation of a currency relative to the other in the currency pair.

Make a graph of this interest rate differential overtime! If this graph is steadily moving up, it means that the currency pair is going to appreciate and if it is steadily going down, it means that the currency pair will depreciate. Understanding this correlation between the currency pair prices and the interest rate differential can be highly profitable for your currency trading career!

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Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/finance-articles/tons-of-money-waiting-with-this-forex-software-1619625.html

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It is generally agreed that a good easy forex trading system involves following the trend, but what do you do when there is no clear trend? This is true a large part of the time and it can be very frustrating, especially for the inexperienced foreign exchange trader.

Sometimes you might identify another currency pair where a trend based trade can be opened, but often this is not the case. Besides, dealing with a lot of different currency pairs is confusing. Confusion leads to mistakes. So instead, you might want to learn some strategies for trading in a choppy market.

Of course, you should begin by practicing these techniques in a demo account. This would be a very good use of your time which you might otherwise spend trying to force a trade from very weak signals. So how do you get started? Here are 5 tips for easy forex trading in a fluctuating market.

1. First, check the economic calendar to be sure that the movements you are seeing are not caused by a clash of reports that will soon settle down. Two important announcements in a short time can produce some very weird effects on the market. In a situation like that you would be better off staying out of the market for a few hours. There are no easy forex strategies for that situation.

2. Look at support and resistance levels and pivot points. In an ideal choppy market the support and resistance lines will be parallel and you can expect the market to turn when it approaches them. Check against another indicator such as the stochastic oscillator. If it shows that the price is in the overbought or oversold range, you have another signal for the trade.

3. If the support and resistance lines are converging, a breakout is likely. In this case you cannot assume that the price will always turn. You may prefer to set orders outside the range of the converging lines to catch a breakout when it occurs. But again, check your conclusions against at least one other indicator.

4. Check your planned trade against other currency pairs that tend to be closely related to your selected pair. For example, EUR/USD and USD/CHF tend to be inversely related, which means that one of them will generally fall when the other rises. The same is true of EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF.

5. Do not expect to leave your trade open for a long time. Watch the market without being distracted into something else. Trading in a choppy market is necessarily short term. You need to exit as soon as your profit target or stop loss is reached.

In summary, you can expect to be able to trade in a choppy market if prices are going up and down in a fairly regular pattern, but not if price movements are completely wild. Some days it is better to forget about trading and do something else with your time. There is no easy forex trade to be had in a crazy market.

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